Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has taken Minor League Baseball by storm and it’s looking like any day now the Toronto Blue Jays are going to call up their talented young hot corner. Guerrero is clearly ready for MLB action, as he’s currently sporting a .407/.456/.676 slash line with more walks than strikeouts in AA. With current Blue Jays’ third baseman Josh Donaldson set to depart for free agency after this season, it seems obvious for the Jays to move him for some future value before the trade deadline.
The Blue Jays technically aren’t out of the playoff picture just yet, with FanGraphs playoff odds giving the club a 15.7% chance of winning the second wild card. That’s right behind the Mariners (16.5%), who just lost keystone Robinson Cano to an 80-game suspension for testing positive for a diuretic, the Twins (18.1%), and the Angels (46.1%). Clearly the Blue Jays still have something to play for this year but moving Donaldson wouldn’t necessarily hurt their chances as much with Vladdy Jr. waiting in line.
Donaldson has gotten off to a disappointing start to the 2018 campaign, spending time in April on the DL with a shoulder injury and sporting his highest K% (29.8) of his career. That hasn’t been his only issue with the bat, as he’s currently slashing only .229/.322/.438 with his lowest wRC+ (104) since 2012. Is there anything behind this slow start? Let’s check out his average exit velocity and launch angles from the past three seasons via Baseball Savant:
| Year | Average Exit Velocity (MPH) | Average Launch Angle |
| 2016 | 92.0 mph | 14.7 |
| 2017 | 90.6 mph | 13.5 |
| 2018 | 89.3 mph | 9.0 |
Both his average exit velocity and launch angle are trending in the wrong direction. There isn’t anything too alarming in Donaldson’s batted ball profile, which leads me to believe there could be a difference in how pitchers are attacking him. Here are the percentage of fastballs, cutters, and sliders against Donaldson the past three seasons:
| Year | Fastball % | Cutter % | Slider% |
| 2016 | 52.7% | 5.8% | 19.9% |
| 2017 | 51.6% | 6.9% | 20.7% |
| 2018 | 46.4% | 10.4% | 23.3% |
Pitchers are starting to attack Donaldson more and more with spin and cutters as opposed to four-seam fastballs. Both the slider and cutter are pitches that will break away from him, which tells me pitchers think they have spotted a weakness on the outer half of the plate. Let’s look at where pitchers have been throwing their fastballs, cutters, and sliders to Donaldson the past three seasons. Here’s 2016:
And 2017:
And finally, 2018:
Sure enough, we can see pitchers are either more cautious facing Donaldson, are executing their pitches better, or both. This may help explain Donaldson’s slow start this season at the plate. This isn’t the end of the world for a guy as talented as Donaldson; pitchers are not perfect and still miss their spots and the last thing I am going to do is bet against a former MVP in his contract season as we head into the summer.
The title of this post is about looking at a trade of Donaldson to the Atlanta Braves. You may be asking yourself: why the Atlanta Braves? To me, they make the most sense for Donaldson’s services right now. The Braves are a little ahead of schedule in their rebuild, currently sitting in first place over the Philadelphia Phillies by half a game. Their division lead is thanks in large part to one of the best offenses in baseball, featuring two solid veterans in Freddie Freeman (166 wRC+) and Nick Markakis (159 wRC+) complemented by two of the most exciting young players in the game today, Ozzie Albies (142 wRC+) and Ronald Acuna (121 wRC+).
With Austin Riley (the Braves hot corner of the future currently raking in AA) ready to make his debut for the club next season, this may be the perfect time for the Braves to rent Donaldson for the rest of 2018. Donaldson won’t cost the Braves nearly as much as say, Manny Machado, which would allow them to keep their elite talent at the upper levels of their farm system. Not to mention, Braves current GM Alex Anthopoulos knows the Jays front office well having worked for the organization for 10+ years and has already traded for Donaldson once during his tenure with Toronto.
Adding a talented third baseman to the roster would make the Atlanta offense even that more dangerous. The Braves recently signed Jose Bautista to try and plug the hole at third and that just hasn’t panned out thus far as Joey Bats is currently sporting a 63 wRC+ at the plate without adding any value in the field. Ryan Flaherty has been a pleasant surprise so far but is only projected to add 0.3 WAR for the rest of the season. The projections are much friendlier to Donaldson, as ZiPS has Donaldson projected to add 3.2 WAR for the rest of 2018.
With the Braves taking on the rest of Donaldson’s $23 million contract the rest of season, let’s keep it simple and say they would owe him roughly $11 million. Given that a win is currently worth around $10 million, the Braves would be getting around $20 million in surplus value as they make a run at the playoffs.
What can the Blue Jays expect in return for $20 million of value? Dave Cameron touched on this last year for FanGraphs, and to save you time I put the table here below:
If the Jays want a position player, it looks like they are looking at a prospect in the 45-50 FV range. If they want an arm, it ticks up a bit to a 50-55 FV. I’m not saying the Jays will be able to get something this valuable from Atlanta for half a season of Donaldson, but something close to this wouldn’t be that far out of the realm of possibilities given how many talented prospects the Braves have. Where do the Blue Jays have the most need? Glancing over FanGraphs’ Top 22 prospects for the Blue Jays, we see their top 10 breakdown like this:
| Position | Total # of Players |
| RHP | 3 |
| LHP | 1 |
| IF | 3 |
| OF | 1 |
| C | 2 |
Looks like the Jays could either use a left-handed pitcher or an outfielder, and I am betting Ross Atkins will want someone closer to MLB ready as they graduate some of their own talented prospects currently in the upper levels of the minors.
With Kevin Pillar manning center field and Anthony Alford set to follow in his footsteps, the Blue Jays aren’t as in much of a need with outfield help. Not to mention, finding corner outfield bats is fairly easy via trade or on the open market. That being said, I think the most obvious move is for the Braves to move one of their young lefties, which happens to be their biggest strength from a depth standpoint. Here are some players that make the most sense for the Braves to move, with links to their prospect evaluations by Eric Longenhagen:
Kolby Allard – LHP, 50 FV (Eric Longenhagen, FanGraphs)
Max Fried – LHP 50 FV (Eric Longenhagen, FanGraphs)
Joey Wentz – LHP 50 FV (Eric Longenhagen, FanGraphs)
A.J. Minter – LHP, 45 FV (Eric Longenhagen, FanGraphs)
The one that makes the most sense for the Jays to try and acquire is Kolby Allard. Allard is a talented 20-year-old in Triple A currently sporting a 1.71 ERA and looks just about ready for the the big leagues. Longenhagen seems to be a bit lower on him than Luiz Gohara (55 FV) and similar to Max Fried (50 FV), but still believe he will be a quality big leaguer for many years to come. The Braves have another lefty similar to Allard dominating the lower levels of the minors in Joey Wentz, so I don’t think they’d be too reluctant to part ways with him.
It makes sense for the Braves to trade away a mid-tier prospect from their stacked farm system to take a serious stab at the playoffs this year while Austin Riley continues to get reps in the minor leagues. Donaldson would help make their lineup more complete, and parting ways with a pitcher like Allard doesn’t really hurt their left-handed pitching depth. I can see the Jays putting themselves in a better position to contend in 2019 and beyond by swapping the former AL MVP for a much-needed left-handed pitching prospect while filling Donaldson’s place with the best prospect in the world right away. This move makes sense for both parties involved, and if the Braves continue to play good baseball over the next few weeks Anthopoulos may want to take his shot at 2018 with the addition of Josh Donaldson. This would be the second time Anthopoulos will have made a move for the slugger, only this time Donaldson is present value, rather than future- the Braves have that part covered.
