The Baltimore Orioles have been the worst team in professional baseball this season. By position player WAR, they are last in the league; by pitching WAR, they are 24th out of 30 teams. They currently sit 23 games back of the AL East leading New York Yankees. On this current date, FanGraphs has the Orioles’ odds of making the playoffs at an unsurprisingly 0%. With contracts expiring for both GM Dan Duquette and Manager Buck Showalter following this season, it seems obvious the franchise is destined to head in a new direction.
The Orioles have been the worst team in baseball with one of the best players in the league: shortstop Manny Machado. Although Machado is set to become a free agent after 2018, there will be plenty of teams calling on him over the next couple of weeks now that the MLB Draft is over. The Orioles are in an obvious position to sell off any assets they can at this point, so to all Orioles fans: be prepared for a fire-sale this season.
Now that teams have gotten smarter, many front offices are leery of giving up cost-controlled young talent in the minor leagues for months of a player’s services, even an MVP candidate like Manny Machado. As you can probably tell from the title of this post, I don’t think a trade for a rental like Machado is going to look “traditional” from a value standpoint- teams are going to be sharpening their pencils down to the eraser in order to get a deal done. I don’t think teams are going to get away with giving up something similar to what the Diamondbacks gave up last season for renting slugger JD Martinez.
Before we get into some teams that I think should seriously consider trading for Machado, let’s look at what Manny has been up to this season. After taking a step back last year where he only produced 2.5 WAR, the first time since 2014 with a WAR under 6, Machado has been on a tear this season after taking over shortstop duties for the Orioles. He ranks 9th in the majors in WAR (2.9), 6th in wRC+ (165), 4th in HR (18), and 2nd in RBI (50). Out of qualified shortstops in the majors, he ranks 3rd in WAR behind Francisco Lindor of the Cleveland Indians and Andrelton Simmons of the Los Angeles Angels.
Part of his early success this season can be attributed to his approach to the plate, as you can see in the table below:
| Year | BB% | K% |
| 2016 | 6.9% | 17.2% |
| 2017 | 7.2% | 16.7% |
| 2018 | 10.5% | 13.9% |
Not only is Machado walking more than ever, he’s continued to improve his ability to make contact as he’s cut his strikeout percentage for the third year in a row. Now, improved plate discipline and contact abilities are great, but here’s what is even scarier:
| Year | Avg. Exit Velocity | Average Launch Angle |
| 2016 | 92.4 mph | 14.6 |
| 2017 | 90.9 mph | 13.5 |
| 2018 | 92.4 mph | 17.8 |
Combine more walks and less strikeouts with the fact that Machado is hitting the ball as hard as he ever has with an optimal launch angle and you have one tantalizing figure at the plate. Machado is proving this year why he is one of the best in the league and why he will be coming with an extremely high price tag during free agency next season.
While there’s no doubting Machado’s offensive abilities, he has somewhat struggled in the field this season. I like using UZR/150 over traditional UZR because it normalizes the data a little bit. Here’s how the 12 qualified shortstops in the AL rank in the statistic:
| Player | UZR/150 |
| Andrelton Simmons | 14.3 |
| Francisco Lindor | 12.3 |
| Jose Iglesias | 11.0 |
| Marcus Semien | 8.2 |
| Carlos Correa | 5.2 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 2.4 |
| Alcides Escobar | -1.0 |
| Jean Segura | -1.7 |
| Didi Gregorius | -1.8 |
| Tim Anderson | -4.0 |
| Jurickson Profar | -8.5 |
| Manny Machado | -9.8 |
Machado seems to be having some difficulties adjusting to playing in the middle of the diamond. He fared much better at the hot corner last season, ranking 4th out of 8 qualified third basemen in the AL in 2017. I am not suggesting Machado can’t hold his own at the position, because I think he can, it’s just that he isn’t an elite defender we’ve become accustomed to seeing at shortstop in the big leagues. The production he is able to provide at the plate on top of the fact that he’s able to hold his own at a premium position is what makes Manny Machado so valuable; teams don’t have to burn two roster spots in order to get an adequate glove at short and an extra bat to pick up the slack offensively.
So, back to the original premise of this post… How valuable is Machado? This season Manny is under contract for one year at $16,000,000. Whoever ends up acquiring Machado will be taking on roughly $6,000,000-$8,000,000 of remaining salary depending on the time of the trade. ZiPS has Machado projected for 3.6 WAR for the rest of the season, so we’re looking at about $22-$30 million dollars of surplus value here (assuming a win is currently worth about $10 million).
This is a pretty black and white way at looking at Machado’s value from a numbers standpoint. I have a feeling that this is severely underestimating his total value- we know that wins mean more to franchises on the cusp of the postseason as opposed to teams that are either securely winning their division or out of the playoffs. Not to mention, I think there are plenty of teams that willl be entering the bidding war, and anytime that happens the cost is always going to go up. With that being said, I think the surplus value here is going to be treated closer to $35-$45 million. Here are some teams that should be in play for Machado this summer, and why I think the Philadelphia Phillies are the best fit:
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies have been one of baseball’s biggest surprises so far this season, starting off the year with a 32-28 record sitting 3.0 games back of the NL East as of this writing. The Phils have been carried so far this season by one of baseball’s best pitching staffs: they rank 5th in the MLB in pitcher WAR (9.3), 3rd in FIP (3.44), and 6th in xFIP (3.74). The offense has been a different story, ranking in the bottom half of the league in WAR (4.9), wRC+ (90), and wOBA (.305). Not to mention, the Phillies rank 28th in SS WAR (-0.6) in the majors and have recently turned to rookie Scott Kingery (.212/.261/.317) to stop the bleeding but that obviously hasn’t been working out well. The Phillies could also move Machado back to third base where they currently rank 28th in the league in 3B WAR (0.0). Adding a player like Machado would dramatically increase the Phillies chances at the playoffs this year and I’d like to think the team has a good chance of retaining Manny in free agency with plenty of payroll flexibility heading into the offseason.
St. Louis Cardinals
It’s hard to imagine President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak giving up the assets needed for a rental, but the Cardinals could definitely use Machado. They currently sit 3 games behind the Brewers for the NL Central lead and are in a crowded NL Wild Card hunt. After losing Paul Dejong to a fractured hand earlier in the season, Machado could help a team that has turned to Yairo Munoz (who made 3 errors in a blowout loss against the Marlins the other night) for their shortstop duties. Another reason this may seem a bit far-fetched is the Cardinals inability to lure big name players to their franchise long-term (Jason Heyward, David Price, Giancarlo Stanton), so in this case the chances are low the Cardinals would be able to retain Machado in free agency this offseason.
New York Yankees
The Yankees seemed locked in with Didi Gregorious as their shortstop complemented with young studs Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar, however the Yanks currently rank last in the majors in SS WAR (-0.5) over the past 30 days. While the Yankees currently have in an infield log jam with Tyler Anderson and Neil Walker and are in desperate need of starting pitching help, especially after losing Jordan Montgomery to Tommy John, I can still see them jumping in only to drive up the price for their divisional rival. New York has the luxury of signing Machado in a few months without having to give up the farm, and I think they have a good shot at landing the young star in free agency.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox clearly have the shortstop position covered with Xander Bogaerts (.284/.340/.525), however Rafael Devers has been a bit of a disappointment so far this season at the hot corner (.228/.282/.399). I will never doubt Dave Dombrowski’s propensity to make a big trade at the deadline, and if it means beating out the Yankees for Machado he may do whatever it takes to avoid surrendering the AL East and having to face either Gerrit Cole or James Paxton in a one game playoff. I think the Red Sox and Yankees will almost bid each other out this summer, and with both clubs sharing a division with the Orioles their price tag is already at a premium anyway.
Los Angeles Dodgers
It’s no secret that the Los Angeles Dodgers could use some help at shortstop after losing All-Star Corey Seager for the year to elbow surgery. Chris Taylor has been able to hop in and fill the role thanks to the resurgent Matt Kemp (.347/.377/.582) and above-average play of Joc Pederson (.272/.345/.523) in the outfield. With the Dodgers wanting to avoid the luxury tax at all costs, I have a hard time seeing President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman making a deal like this. However, the Dodgers had no issue last season renting Yu Darvish, so you never know.
Chicago Cubs
This one is in fantasy land, according to Cubs’ President of Baseball Operations Theo Epstein, so I’ll go no further.
