Khris Davis – Model of Consistency

Khris Davis has my back. I originally started writing this post Saturday morning and opened with a remark about Davis’s home run against the Angels in a 4-3 loss the night before and how lately it’s seemed like he has been going yard every other night.  Life happened, and I wasn’t able to finish yesterday, so thankfully Khris is an avid reader of the blog and homered again last night in the A’s 7-0 win over Los Angeles, sparing me from having to think of a new way to open the post.

I don’t have to tell you that the A’s have been a surprise this year. If the season ended today, they would currently be on a flight to New York to play the Yankees in the Wild Card Game.  Oakland has ridden an unbelievable hot streak this summer to take a 1.5 game lead for the second wild card over the Seattle Mariners, a team currently running the longest post season drought in North American sports (ouch).  Not only are they in the hunt for a wild card spot, but after the Mariners sweep of the Astros in Houston over the weekend the A’s now find themselves only 2.5 games back for first place in the AL West.  A crucial series begins tonight between Seattle and Oakland, where the A’s will look to separate themselves from Seattle and the rest of the wild card pack. Billy Beane is at it again.

One of the keys to the Athletics’ success so far has been their star third baseman Matt Chapman and an elite bullpen that just got stronger over the weekend by adding arrow-slinging closer Fernando Rodney from the Twins.  Jeff Sullivan at FanGraphs, one of the best baseball analysts out there, already touched on the elite bullpen of the Athletics earlier this year, which I highly recommend reading. There is one last piece missing from what is driving the A’s success this year: Khris Davis.

Khris Davis, not to be confused with Chris Davis of the Baltimore Orioles (he’s having possibly one of the worst seasons of all time), was drafted out of Cal State Fullerton in the 7th round of the 2009 MLB Draft.  After slugging 63 homeruns in his first three and a half seasons of professional baseball, the Brewers called Davis up in the second half of the 2013 season where he would go on to hit 11 home runs in 56 games (a 32-homer pace over a full season).  Following his stellar debut in 2013, Davis hasn’t looked back, solidifying himself as one of the best power hitters in the game today.  Following a 27-homer campaign in 2015, the Brewers dealt Davis to the Athletics for two minor league prospects: Bowdien Derby and Jacob Nottingham.  One could say the A’s were obvious winners of this trade, however I will note that Davis has always graded out as a subpar defender and was always better suited for an AL club where he could DH.  Not to mention, the Brewers have never had an issue finding capable outfielders.

Davis has somewhat flown under the radar since taking his talents to Oakland.  He’s put up back to back 40-homerun seasons in 2016 and 2017 and is on pace to do so again in 2018.  By and large, he’s been one of the best power hitters in the majors. Since joining the A’s in 2016, here’s the top 10 home run hitters in baseball over the past three seasons:   

Khris Davis has hit more homeruns over other past three years than any other player in baseball, ahead of players like Giancarlo Stanton and Mike Trout.   While baseball people would acknowledge that Davis has been a valuable hitter I think few realize the type of power numbers he has been putting up on a consistent basis. Narrowing the scope a bit to the last 30 days, Davis has been one of the hottest hitters in the MLB.  Here are the top 5 home run hitters in baseball over the last month:

Only Matt Carpenter of the St. Louis Cardinals, who can’t even explain what he’s been doing recently, has more home runs than Davis.  Thanks in large part to Davis’s contributions at the plate during this hot stretch, the Athletics have featured baseball’s 6th best wRC+ (116) in the past month.  They haven’t had any issues finding barrels. 

There are plenty of metrics via Statcast that you can play around with using Baseball Savant, but one that I find particularly interesting is the barrels per plate appearance metric.  This metric measures exactly what it says it does: the amount of “good” contact a hitter makes every time he comes to bat. “Good” is subjective to the Lords of Statcast, but just stick with me.  Below are the top three hitters in the league by barrels per PA.   We find Davis sandwiched in between two of the best hitters in the game today:

Don’t get me wrong, Statcast isn’t perfect, and what they qualify as a “barrel” may not reflect true optimum contact, but it’s not like this can be a bad thing.  I still can’t help how interesting this is.  We hear plenty about Martinez and Betts and the best player in baseball Mike Trout (don’t hate me Boston fans), and very little of Khris Davis.

Much of his success this year can be attributed to punishing pitches in the strike zone, this shouldn’t be all that surprising.  Davis isn’t a guy who draws many walks, as his 8.3 BB% can attest, and he still racks up his fair share of strikeouts with a 25.7 K%.  When he does make contact in the strike zone, he hits baseballs very, very far.  Davis has stuck to what makes him good: hitting ahead in the count and punishing mistakes.  Like most other power hitters, Davis is in trouble when he is swinging at pitches that aren’t strikes.  Here the worst 5 hitters in baseball when it comes to making contact with pitches out of the zone:

While Davis, struggles at putting balls in play, he’s fantastic at pitch selection when it comes to swinging at strikes.  As you can tell in the chart below, Davis has a pretty good idea of what pitches he should swing at when a pitcher challenges him:

Khris Davis is very good when ahead in the count. This doesn’t really make him all that unique, hitting is easier when you are ahead in the count. The pitcher doesn’t want to walk you and is much more likely to throw you something in the zone.  When a pitcher is ahead in the count, the ball is in his court. He wants to throw you something that you’ll chase, and as a hitter you must protect against anything close to avoid striking out.  Hitting good major league pitching is hard, whether you’re ahead in the count or behind in it.  Pitchers aren’t perfect, they’re human, humans make mistakes. When Davis is getting hittable pitches in the strike zone, he isn’t missing, which is a feat others before him have failed to accomplish.  There is value in not missing mistakes.

Much of the statistical analysis on the game of baseball in the public sphere relates to change: a player is doing something drastically different than career norms that either leads to success or poor performance.  Sometimes it’s nice to recognize players for their consistencies, especially players that do not garner as much media attention as others in the game today. Khris Davis is one of the best homerun hitters in baseball, and we are lucky enough that he’s in the heart of the AL Wild Card race for a team with one of the lowest payrolls in baseball.

While home run totals are higher than ever, thanks to potentially a juiced ball, a baseball being hit far enough to travel over the fence will never stop entertaining fans.  Khris Davis has been providing this sort of entertainment now for three years and isn’t showing any signs of slowing down.  He’s a big reason why Oakland is in the hunt to win a division that almost surely seemed like a lock for the Astros at the beginning of the season.  If Davis and crew can continue to slug their way to the playoffs, the A’s might have a chance at pulling off one of the greatest upsets in baseball history.  All the A’s need to do is stay consistent, it’s been working thus far…