Checking in on Matt Adams vs. Eric Hosmer

You are a GM planning on building a contending team (on a budget of course) with sustained success starting today and can only choose one of the following first baseman:

Career Statistics

Having a tough time making a choice? I’ll make it a little easier for you: here is what Player A and Player B have done up to this point in 2018:

Before you can make your decision, you still need to know what these players are going to cost you. Remember, like any other business, you are working on a budget here. Here are the players contractual obligations:

If you don’t know who’s who at this point, then I really don’t know what to tell you. Player A is Matt Adams. Player B is Eric Hosmer.

Over the offseason, the Washington Nationals made a surprisingly early signing of Matt Adams for 1-year $4,000,000 in December.  Several months later, the San Diego Padres signed Eric Hosmer to an 8-year deal for $144,000,000. So far this season, Matt Adams has outproduced Hosmer in every offensive category all while providing some positional flexibility as a left fielder for the Nationals. This wouldn’t be that big of a big deal if Hosmer wasn’t getting paid 4.5 times more than Adams this season and also many more millions guaranteed in the future.

Just like Mike Moustakas, who we discussed in last week’s post, Matt Adams has already paid for his contract this season and then some.  Why Hosmer received so much more than Adams this offseason had a lot of us scratching our heads, and Dave Cameron tweeted earlier in the year about this before leaving FanGraphs to take a job with the team he warned not to sign Eric Hosmer: The San Diego Padres.

I don’t want to make this post entirely about comparing Adams to Hosmer. Hosmer has been solid for the Padres thus far this season, and Travis Sawchik at FanGraphs recently checked in on Hosmer’s batted ball data with his new club. For those not wanting to read the full article: Hosmer hasn’t changed much, and it still seems as though there is some untapped potential there.

Matt Adams has been a huge blessing to a team that has seen limited action from All-Star level players like Daniel Murphy and Adam Eaton this season. Adams has been the second most valuable player on the Nationals this season, by FanGraphs’ WAR he is currently ahead of names like Bryce Harper and Ryan Zimmerman and trailing only Trea Turner. What is behind this hot start for Adams?

First and foremost, Adams has been much more selective this season running a walk rate of 13.5%, the first time he has reached double digits in his career in the majors. Not only is he walking more, but Adams is striking out at his lowest rate  since his breakout season with the Cardinals in 2014 when he recorded his highest single season WAR of his career (1.8). Any time you see a hitter double his walk rate while reducing his strikeouts is a good time to buy.

The real question is this: are these walks the result of pitchers avoiding Adams or has his batting eye actually improved? A good way to tell this is by examining a hitter’s chase rate (the amount of times he swings at pitches outside of the strike zone). Below is Matt Adam’s out-of-zone swing rate since 2014:

Adams is indeed becoming more selective and has been way less likely to chase pitches out of the zone, which helps explain the hike in his walk rate. Being more selective means Adams is honing in and only swinging at pitches that he knows he can do damage on.

I like looking at batted ball data for power hitters to give me an idea of just how well the ball is coming off the bat.  In my mind, any baseball hit in excess of 100mph is hit extremely hard. Last season, Matt Adams recorded 6 batted balls harder than 100mph. This season, Adams has already recorded 4 such batted balls and we are only in May. Whether Adams is now hitting the ball harder or becoming more consistent I cannot say. What I can say is that all of the signs up to this point are pointing towards this offensive breakout being legit.

Now I do believe there is some regression due for Adams this year. First, I doubt Adams will continue to run a HR/FB rate of 35.7% for the rest of the season. I also think that Adams will see some regression from his career low first pitch strike percentage (55.8%) as pitchers will respond to his newer approach and try to get in more favorable counts against him.

Overall though, I think the Nationals are happy they jumped on the opportunity to sign Adams. He is already delivering surplus value for a club that is trying to make the most of former NL MVP Bryce Harper’s potential last season in D.C. and has provided much needed offensive support for a club missing some of their proven stars.