Full disclaimer: I am removing his 2016 tenure with the Oakland A’s in this analysis.
Let’s start with the obvious: his box score statistics don’t jump off the page, and he doesn’t pass the eye test. But, Chris Coghlan’s 2014-2016 numbers with the Cubs tell me he’s a value add as a platoon/4th OF for most teams in the league. In the next couple of paragraphs, I am going to outline why Coghlan is worth more than the minor-league contract signed with the Philadelphia Phillies last week.
For those who remember, Chris Coghlan came in to the Show hot in 2007, taking home the NL ROY trophy (.321/.390/.460). After battling injuries and minor league demotions, Coghlan had a chance to revitalize his career with the “tanking” Cubs in 2014.
Let’s start with Coghlan’s offensive capabilities. From 2014-2016, with the Cubs, Coghlan had a wRC+* average of 115, which places him exactly in the Above Average category. For comparison, that ranked ahead of All-Stars Lorenzo Cain and Evan Longoria. In those same years, his wOBA** average was .344, again placing him in the Above Average slot, which ranked him higher than DJ Lemahieu and Matt Kemp.
What really stood out was his BB% trend over the past 3 years: an uptick each year from 9% to 11.5% to 17.2%. While Chris does have average power, his ability to get on base via the walk is his bread and butter. When evaluating talent in the minor leagues, an increasing walk rate is a tell-tale sign to clubs that a hitter is improving; Coghlan’s ability to do so at this stage of his career makes it even more impressive.
Now, I know what you’re thinking: his defense was below average in 2014. He had -12 Defensive Runs Saved in LF/RF. But, he is trending strongly in the other direction, increasing his defensive runs saved to an even 0 in 2015 to a +5 in 2016. In comparison to his peers in the corner OF spots, he is below-average in LF and average in RF.
For a guy who has a 6.7 WAR in his last three years with the Cubs, Coghlan didn’t getting much attention, being left off MLBTR’s Top 50 FA List. Teams pay for gaudy numbers on the open market, so it was safe to assume he wouldn’t cash in on a big deal. With that being said, if an unproven player like Eric Thames can get a multi-year, $16 million deal after being gone from the MLB for 4 years, Chris Coghlan is certainly deserving of a comparable deal, if not more.
As Chris Coghlan fights for a spot on the Opening Day roster, it’ll be interesting to see how he performs. Between Dylan Cozens, Nick Williams, and Roman Quinn, the Phillies have three young prospects who can hit from the left side of the plate; the thing is, they are at least a year off from the Show and all have significant issues at the plate to fix.
Michael Saunders and Odubel Herrera are the only two LHB outfielders left standing on the 40-Man Roster, and these two will most likely be in the starting lineup daily. That leaves Coghlan’s competition for the 4th OF spot with Daniel Nava, another Non-Roster Invitee. Nava’s career has tailed off since 2012-2014, where he saw success with the Red Sox but could never sustain it. Aside from that, Coghlan also has the versatility to play 2B and 3B.
Overall, Chris Coghlan was deserving of a 2-year deal in the range of $10-12 million, depending on how you value a win. With the Phillies expected to be in sell-mode all year, look for Coghlan to make the team, make an impact off the bench, and potentially be dealt this summer to a contender for a prospect in return.
*Per Fangraphs, wRC+ is “a statistic that attempts to credit a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating all hits or times on base equally, while also controlling for park effects and the current run environment. It is scaled so that a score of 100 is league average and every point above/below is equal to one percentage point below/above average.”
**Per Tom Tango & Fangraphs, wOBA is “a statistic that attempts to credit a hitter for the value of each outcome rather than treating all hits or times on base equally. wOBA is on the same scale as On-Base Percentage (OBP).”
