Many people around the game of baseball value a hitter who rarely strikes out. In one of our previous posts, we showed the correlation between exit velocity and strikeout rates: if you have a high average exit velocity and a low strikeout rate, odds are you are a pretty solid hitter. However, a bad strikeout rate doesn’t always mean you can’t be great at the plate.
Below is FanGraph’s chart relevant to strikeout rate:
| Rating | K% |
| Excellent | 10.0% |
| Great | 12.5% |
| Above Average | 16.0% |
| Average | 20.0% |
| Below Average | 22.0% |
| Poor | 25.0% |
| Awful | 27.5% |
According to this chart, anything above a 22.0% strikeout rate is considered below average. However, there is another statistic that can drastically offset a bad strikeout rate: a hitter who possesses a higher line drive rate than their strikeout rate. Below is a table of the five major league hitters with a higher line-drive percentage than their so-called “below average” strikeout percentage (K%):
| Player | K% | LD% |
| Freddie Freeman | 24.7% | 29.1% |
| Brandon Belt | 22.6% | 27.8% |
| Dexter Fowler | 22.5% | 23.8% |
| Logan Forsythe | 22.4% | 22.8% |
| Kris Byrant | 22.0% | 23.7% |
How did these players perform last year? The table below shows their AVG/OBP/SLG/Off values for 2016:
| Player | AVG | OBP | SLG | Off |
| Freddie Freeman | .302 | .400 | .569 | 45.5 |
| Brandon Belt | .275 | .394 | .474 | 28.0 |
| Dexter Fowler | .276 | .393 | .447 | 25.8 |
| Logan Forsythe | .264 | .333 | .444 | 9.2 |
| Kris Bryant | .292 | .385 | .554 | 49.1 |
As you can see, while most players with bad strikeout rates severely hamper their abilities at the plate, the players with a higher line drive percentage than their strikeout percentage are still great offensive players. Any Off value above 0 is considered average while anything over 40 is almost unheard of. Freeman and Bryant, two of the best offensive players in the game, had a below average strikeout rate. Having a higher line drive percentage than strikeout percentage mitigates the disadvantages of a player who strikes out a lot.
A player that jumps out to me that could very well see himself move into this category is Chicago Cubs shortstop Addison Russell. Addison had a 22.6% K rate in 2016 with a line-drive rate at 21.1% (a +2.9% increase in LD% from 2015). Russell is a guy I could see bumping his line-drive rate past his strikeout rate in 2017 resulting in a big year at the plate for the defending world champs.
Strikeout percentage is a great stat for separating good and bad hitters, but in today’s game it is not uncommon to see some of the top offensive players have below average strikeout rates. Strikeouts are on the rise in the MLB, so look at a player’s K/LD ratio to determine whether or not its really an issue.
For more baseball statistics from your favorite player’s in the game today, make sure you check out www.fangraphs.com
